Austin, Texas, December 24, 2025
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has announced a low risk of power outages this winter, estimating a mere 1% chance of rolling blackouts. This improvement is credited to increased grid resilience and weatherization efforts since the severe freeze in 2021. While normal conditions appear stable, ERCOT warns that extreme weather could heighten blackout risks to nearly 80%. Residents are encouraged to remain informed and prepared for potential power disruptions during severe weather events.
Austin, Texas – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has projected a low risk of power outages this winter, estimating a 1% chance of rolling blackouts in January and February. This marks a significant improvement from previous years, attributed to enhanced grid resilience and favorable weather forecasts.
ERCOT’s assessment indicates that, under normal winter conditions, the grid is well-prepared to meet demand. However, the likelihood of blackouts increases if extreme weather events, similar to the February 2021 storm, occur. In such scenarios, the probability of outages could rise to nearly 80%.
The grid’s improved stability is largely due to substantial investments in weatherization and energy storage. Since the 2021 freeze, ERCOT has conducted over 2,000 winter weatherization inspections, ensuring that power plants and natural gas facilities are better equipped to handle cold temperatures. Additionally, the integration of large-scale battery storage has bolstered the grid’s capacity to manage peak demand periods, particularly during early morning hours when solar energy production is minimal.
Despite these advancements, ERCOT emphasizes the importance of continued vigilance. While the grid is better prepared than in previous years, the potential for blackouts remains if severe winter storms occur. ERCOT advises residents to stay informed about weather forecasts and to be prepared for potential power disruptions during extreme weather events.
In summary, ERCOT’s proactive measures and favorable weather predictions have significantly reduced the risk of power outages this winter. Nonetheless, Texans are encouraged to remain prepared for unexpected weather events that could impact the power grid.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is ERCOT’s projected risk of power outages this winter?
ERCOT projects a 1% chance of rolling blackouts in January and February, indicating a low risk of power outages under normal winter conditions.
How has ERCOT improved grid reliability since the 2021 freeze?
ERCOT has conducted over 2,000 winter weatherization inspections and integrated large-scale battery storage to enhance grid resilience and capacity.
What factors could increase the risk of power outages this winter?
Extreme weather events, similar to the February 2021 storm, could increase the probability of outages to nearly 80%.
What should residents do to prepare for potential power disruptions?
Residents are advised to stay informed about weather forecasts and to be prepared for potential power disruptions during extreme weather events.
Key Features of ERCOT’s Winter Outlook
| Feature | Details |
|---|---|
| Projected Risk of Outages | 1% chance of rolling blackouts in January and February under normal conditions |
| Grid Enhancements | Over 2,000 winter weatherization inspections and integration of large-scale battery storage |
| Increased Risk Factors | Extreme weather events similar to the February 2021 storm could raise outage probability to nearly 80% |
| Resident Preparedness | Stay informed about weather forecasts and prepare for potential power disruptions during extreme weather events |
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