Austin, Texas, January 16, 2026

An Emerson College Polling survey shows State Representative James Talarico is leading U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett by 9 points in the Texas Senate Democratic primary. Talarico has 47% support compared to Crockett’s 38%, while 15% of voters remain undecided. The poll highlights demographic support dynamics, with Talarico receiving substantial backing from Hispanic and white voters, whereas Crockett leads among Black voters. The Democratic primary is set for March 3, 2026, and both candidates are ramping up their campaigns.

New Poll Shows Talarico Leading Crockett in Texas Senate Democratic Primary

AUSTIN, Texas — A recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey indicates that State Representative James Talarico holds a 9-point lead over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Senator John Cornyn. The poll, conducted earlier this week, shows Talarico at 47% support, Crockett at 38%, and 15% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided.

Demographic Breakdown

The survey highlights distinct demographic preferences among voters. Talarico has garnered significant support from Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters. Conversely, Crockett leads among Black Democratic primary voters, with 80% backing her candidacy. Gender analysis reveals that men favor Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are nearly evenly split, with 44% supporting Talarico and 43% supporting Crockett.

Comparative Polling Data

This shift contrasts with a December survey by Texas Southern University, which found Crockett leading Talarico by 8 percentage points. In that poll, Crockett received 51% support, Talarico 43%, and 6% of voters were undecided.

Implications for the Primary Race

The upcoming Democratic primary, scheduled for March 3, 2026, is expected to be competitive. Both candidates have demonstrated strong fundraising capabilities, with Talarico raising over $13 million since his campaign launch in September.

Background on the Candidates

James Talarico, representing the 50th district in the Texas House of Representatives, has been a vocal advocate for education reform and progressive policies. His campaign emphasizes addressing income inequality and expanding access to healthcare.

Jasmine Crockett, serving as the U.S. Representative for Texas’s 30th congressional district, has gained recognition for her outspoken stance on civil rights and social justice issues. She has been a prominent figure in opposing the previous administration’s policies and advocating for systemic change.

Looking Ahead

As the primary election approaches, both candidates are intensifying their campaigns to secure the Democratic nomination. Voter engagement and turnout will be crucial factors in determining the outcome of this closely watched race.